BOOK NOTE - How to Write a Mystery: A Handbook from Mystery Writers of America, edited by Lee Child with Laurie R. King

Mysteries, whether in novel form or on TV, are one of the best things in the world. A good mystery novel can transport me away from this world and provides one of the best escapes from the mundane every day. One of my first attempts at writing something as a pre-teen was a detective mystery, inspired by the many Enid Blyton adventures like The Secret Seven and The Famous Five, as well as series like The Three Investigators, presented by Alfred Hitchcock, which I spent most of my time reading.

The art of writing a mystery has fascinated me, and while I haven't yet managed to publish one, I have a few drafts and outlines lying around. How to Write a Mystery: A Handbook from Mystery Writers of America, edited by Lee Child with Laurie R. King, is a great resource for aspiring mystery writers and for those who simply want to read about how great mystery writers like Lee Child, Jeffrey Deaver, and Dale Berry approach their craft. The book offers excellent context on what it takes to build a good mystery, tips for writing across different genres of mysteries, and interesting observations from some of the best in the field.

Some of the real gems from the book that have stuck with me are the following:

1. About storytelling - Meg Gardiner, in the article Keep it Thrilling, says about storytelling: “The theater of the mind is more powerful than a bucket of blood.” Often, when we write, we try to describe everything. But storytelling can achieve even more if we let the reader's mind fill in the gaps and spark their imagination.
2. On writing children's mysteries - Chris Grabenstein notes that there is a new group of 5th graders every year, ensuring that the genre has a long shelf life.
3. On authenticity - One of the constant challenges I face is the following: I haven't, thankfully, been part of or witnessed a crime. How can I write authentically about it? Charles Salzburg offers a response to this, encouraging us not to be limited by what we know. We can let our imaginations run wild and use Google and the news cycle as inspiration.
4. On subtext - Stephen Ross provides one of the best descriptions of subtext. He describes the following grocery shopping list a character might have: “Bread. Milk. Eggs. Hammer. Quicklime. Shovel. Champagne.” He explains that this works much better than explicitly describing how the character plans a murder.
5. On villains - T. Jefferson Parker talks about the importance of the villain when he says, “Don’t underestimate the importance of this character. Villains bring the dark into which we (the authors) can bring the illumination.”

Overall, this is an amazing read and an excellent resource for inspiration on how to write a mystery.

BOOK NOTE - Norwegian Wood - Haruki Murakami

 

My main impression of reading Haruki Murakami's Norwegian Wood can be summarized in three words: Unrealistic, uneasy, and "give me more." I am genuinely impressed by Murakami's story of becoming the writer he is, his journey, personal circumstances, habits, and philosophy, and I can by reading this book realize why he deserves his literary rock star status.

Let me explain why I felt this book was unrealistic, and how realizing something made me uneasy and wanting more Murakami.

Without spoiling the story, the protagonist, Toru, comes across as depressed, numb, but somehow, remarkably in control of himself. He has gone through some truly traumatic experiences in his young life, leaving him both numb and strangely optimistic. He moves through life, connecting with people and seemingly leaving them better off, but we don’t really see how he himself changes—despite the story being written from his point of view. Until the reader makes the uneasy realization which I will describe below.

Despite a certain non-appealing, uninteresting quality about him, he uncharacteristically ends up sleeping with every major female character and is also implied to have unromantic relationships with many other women off the narrative screen. This seemed unrealistic to me, even within the almost melancholic setting of late-20th-century Japanese life.

The women in Toru’s life seem one-dimensional, shaped by their own major traumas. So are most of the other characters. However, here is the uneasy realization. Their traits and actions are just reflections of different parts of Toru’s own personality. Naoko, his main female interest, represents the part of him that is reflective of his trauma—his sadness and the part of him that wants to give up, and eventually does. Kizuki, his childhood friend, embodies the root of his early trauma. Midori, his other female love interest, represents the carefree, wild side of Toru, but one that is tinged with the limitations of reality. For example, Midori and Toru are unable to fully give in to their desires for each other due to real-life constraints, such as Midori’s dying father. Nagasawa, his wealthy and powerful university friend, symbolizes Toru’s masculinity—a part of himself that he despises and ultimately banishes from his life. Hatsumi, Nagasawa's fiancée, embodies the ideal partner Toru desires. She is the only one he doesn’t sleep with, because he does not respect what he desires. It’s remarkably poignant that Toru’s inability to save Hatsumi—whether from Nagasawa’s disdain —leads to the loss of his feminine ideal forever. Reiko, a much older woman and a recluse from society, symbolizes maturity—or the lack thereof. As Naoko’s close companion, she represents the memory of his troubled youth. His intimate encounter with her at the end is symbolic of holding onto the past. Storm Trooper, his quirky roommate, represents discipline and routine, which Toru mostly treats as a joke before it disappears from his life.

What left me uneasy was how unrealistic the characters feel when taken at face value as part of a conventional story—until the realization dawns that Norwegian Wood is really about Toru interacting with different parts of himself. This, to me, is the masterstroke of Murakami’s writing in this book, and left with the need to read more of his work.

Give me more!

BOOK NOTE - The Pillars of Hercules: A Grand Tour of the Mediterranean - Paul Theroux

 

A good travelogue is always a good companion, especially when you are not travelling. Paul Theroux's The Pillars of Hercules: A Grand Tour of the Mediterranean is a book about a journey that is a journey in itself. I started reading it in December 2021, and while I usually finish books fast, this one has been a slow read. I completed it in October 2024. The reason is as follows: I have been distracted and have a mild case of reading too many books at the same time.

It is a typical Theroux book, but at the same time, a bit of a pessimistic ramble. I read it with the same love-hate relationship Theroux seems to have with the places he is visiting. Theroux starts in Gibraltar and, instead of crossing the Straits to hop over to Morocco, takes the long route along the interior of the Mediterranean by road and by boat, making an epic journey to the two pillars of Hercules. He does this in the 1990s, when the whole region is going through a lot of transition but is also the Mediterranean of the romantic era, unspoiled by Instagram and travel apps.

In typical Theroux fashion, he documents the idiosyncrasies of the coastal towns and villages through the interactions he has with people there. The best among them are the meetings he has with other authors based in the region—some local, some expat, and some long dead. Along the way, he encounters Salvador Dalí's estate in Figueres, Spain, and reminisces about Hemingway's love of fiestas. In Antibes, he visits Graham Greene's home and has many such encounters with the literati of the past, all of whom found themselves and their writing inspired by the Mediterranean.

Some of the best parts of the book come when he visits notable living authors. He visits Naguib Mahfouz in Egypt and Paul Bowles in Morocco. But why I struggled with this book, only able to read it in bursts and in between finishing many other books, is because Theroux is rather caustic and utterly shreds the romantic experience one has of places like the French Riviera and the Adriatic Coast, revealing their true grunginess. I was reminded of the time I was in Naples back in 2009 and was left uninspired by it.

What kept me going was the Theroux magic of weaving history, anthropology, tragedy, and humour in his writing about the place. On reflection, this is a great book, which feels like an ugly piece of graffiti on an ancient Greek marble column.

BOOK NOTE - Why We Sleep - Matthew Walker

 

Every so often, a book changes your life. Matthew Walker’s Why We Sleep is one such book. Reading about sleep and Walker’s passionate advocacy for a good night’s rest was, ironically, the wake-up call I needed.

Society is deeply misguided when it puts hustle culture on a pedestal, and burning the midnight oil is seen as an achievement, when in fact, it endangers our lives. Walker eloquently explains how modern life has lost the essential wisdom that guided humanity long before we became Homo sapiens. Sleep, the essential ingredient of life, has unfortunately been twisted into something grotesque. By discussing the science of sleep and its importance for our physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral health, Walker hopes to reconnect us with this life-giving force.

I’ve been fortunate to have mentors who stressed not burning the midnight oil. I vividly recall April 2015, during a client workshop I was leading as a market research consultant. I was unable to clearly present data and insights to senior clients who had paid me to do so. Like many consultants, I had stayed up late perfecting the slides, only to struggle the next day. Thanks to my boss, we managed to get through it. Later, a senior colleague shared how avoiding all-nighters had made him more successful. Not everyone is as lucky as I was. I write this at a time when glorified busy lives have claimed young consultants and bankers.

Walker’s book could offer these type-A personalities a pause, reshaping their views on the life-enhancing power of sleep.

Despite knowing the dangers, this book was a wake-up call. Lack of sleep makes us hypersensitive to experience-seeking, which leads to addiction. In today’s world, where phones feed us a constant stream of junk content, addiction is easy, making our minds obese. No wonder people doom-scroll their lives away. Sleep breaks this cycle and is the antidote to anhedonia—losing pleasure in life.

As E. Joseph Cossman said,

"The best bridge between despair and hope is a good night’s sleep."

Should to could; trading one burden with another

I have a hypothesis: The fundamental schism that has emerged in society over the last 30 years, driving both hypergrowth and hyperpolarization, is the shift from the “burden of shoulds” to the “burden of coulds.”

We once lived in a world largely bound by the “burden of shoulds” – we should pray to God, we should obey our parents, we should respect our elders, we should be kind, we should set limits. While there were pockets where these rules were relaxed, society as a whole was still deeply rooted in what one should do. There was change, but it was superficial, leaving the foundational "burden of shoulds" intact.

Somewhere in the last 30 years, this has tipped. Now, society is beholden to a different burden: the “burden of coulds.” I could do whatever I want. Previously, for the last couple of centuries, this agency of “what I could do” peaked during adolescence and middle age, as autonomy and financial independence grew. But after this hype of autonomy wore off, individuals reverted to the societal norm of the “burden of shoulds”. Some were trailblazers, but most were not. And this was normal.

If we go back further into history, the possibilities for defining one’s life were extremely limited. Most people didn’t have the capability or context to pursue a life defined by “coulds.” Inter- and intra-generational sameness was common. Most people followed their fathers’ and grandfathers’ professions. For generations, people adhered to the same philosophical and spiritual beliefs, doing what they should do to remain relevant.

Challenges to the “burden of shoulds” existed, of course. When Nietzsche, for instance, ponders the source of one's habits, he was challenging the dominance of the “burden of shoulds,” but this was not mainstream thought

“Is the source of one's habits coming from innumerable cowardice and laziness, or courage and inventive reasons?”

Recently, the scales have tipped, and the majority now operate within the realm of what could be – the Art of the Possible. This, to me, explains many of the happenings in society. The hypergrowth of Silicon Valley is driven by this burden of “could” – how could we make things faster and frictionless? How could we enable endless buying on credit? How could we replace traditional currency with digital assets? How could we make overconsumption sustainable?

The entire consulting industry, in my view, peddles these possibilities – constantly advocating for change and transformation, fueled by the “coulds.” As a sidebar, Ashley Goodall, a former consulting veteran, writes in his book The Problem with Change about how the cult of disruption has taken hold among executives. He notes:

While we were all busily disrupting ourselves hither and yon, we somehow lost sight of the fact that change and improvement are two different things. In the beginning, executives thought, ‘We need to fix this problem; therefore, we need to change.’ Now, too many believe, ‘We need to change, because then all the problems will be fixed.’

Earlier, I suggested that part of the work malaise we’re seeing today is due to this burden shift. The modern professional, especially in the last 30 years, is constantly navigating between the "burden of shoulds" (what is expected of us, what we believe we must do) and the "burden of coulds" (what we can do, what seems possible). This frequent switching between the two creates a mental tax, contributing to anxiety.

On a societal level, the hyperpolarization and the widening gap between rich and poor are also products of this schism. Political hyperpolarization is a manifestation of this desire for change and the exploration of possibilities. For example, the increasingly negative rhetoric in elections, and the abandonment of common decency, are acceptable to large segments of society because it could be okay to some group of hyperpolarized people. The same can be said for cancel culture and wokeism – extreme manifestations of the “burden of coulds,” where everyone could identify with any gender they choose, disregarding biological norms.

Nietzsche, while advocating for a challenge to certain "shoulds," also warned of the dangers of abandoning them. When he said “God is dead,” he wasn’t celebrating the demise of God, but rather warning of the consequences of a society that abandons universal moral truths. He wrote this in 1882, when the long arc of this change had already started.

Many modern philosophers in the 20th century argued for the benefits of “coulds” and accelerated this change. In the world of shoulds, saving oneself was seen as something external, requiring one to follow specific rules – religious or societal. In the modern world, salvation is often considered internal – you could do whatever you want to save yourself. This shift fully tipped into the “burden of coulds” in the early 21st century.

It’s crucial to note that “could” is considered to be better than “should” in the modern world. And while there is no denying that we are better off today than anytime in history, there are some problems with this schism. “Could”  is only better than “should” if it’s not a burden. But as a society, we’ve simply replaced one burden with another.

This replacement of the certainty of “shoulds” with the uncertainty of “coulds” presents the latest challenge. We have traded one authority figure for a new one. Psychologically, humans need authority figures. So now we idolize those who appear to live freely, doing whatever they could do. 

But it binds us to this new shallow, narcissistic authority figure – the mediocre self which is eternally trapped in the burden of what could be – instead of ever being content or feeling contentment. This is why we spend hours doom-scrolling on Instagram for example, living vicariously through others' curated lives, burdened by thoughts like, “I could travel there,” “I could be perfectly healthy,” “I could be perfectly productive,” etc.

In Book of Longing (2007), Leonard Cohen offers a timeless observation:

“We are moving into a period of bewilderment, a curious moment in which people find light in the midst of despair, and vertigo at the summit of their hopes. It is a religious moment also, and here is the danger. People will want to obey the voice of Authority, and many strange constructs of just what Authority is will arise in every mind… The public yearning for Order will invite many stubborn uncompromising persons to impose it. The sadness of the zoo will fall upon society.”

The sadness of the zoo has fallen upon society.

Trapped inside the cage, burdened by what could be, we are all looking out with longing eyes.

BOOK NOTE - What I talk about when I talk about running - Haruki Murakami

 

An excellent book to pick up and read, especially since I’ve signed up for a marathon in December 2024! Well, a half marathon actually, but still. I’m running the Standard Chartered Singapore Marathon, so when my wife Aditi picked up this book during her recent travels, I was delighted.

This is the first Murakami book I’ve read. Though it’s not one of his famous novels, it didn’t disappoint. Murakami has a unique way with words—simple yet speaking to the reader as an equal. I had heard about his passion for running and even knew how competitive he is. This memoir shows just how deeply running is a part of him.

Murakami treats running as a muse for his writing—both as a source of ideas and as an essential part of his life, which in turn fuels his success as a writer.

A few points really resonated with me:

One. Murakami writes about running to clear discontent. He says he runs to "acquire a void," and I could relate to this. Like him, I thrive in solitude, and physical activities like running, hiking, and walking help me process and transform discontent into something more mundane and manageable.

Two. I finally found the source of the quote: "Pain is inevitable. Suffering is optional." Murakami attributes this wisdom to his brother, who taught him that while pain is part of life, one can choose not to suffer.

Three. The prose is simple but enriched with incredible metaphors. For example, when he describes working on his essays about running, he compares himself to a "silent village blacksmith, tinkering away." It’s a beautiful metaphor for quietly getting the work done.

I’m so glad I discovered this book while training for a half marathon. It has helped me refocus on my jogging routine. In some ways, I’m happy this was my first Murakami book—it makes me look forward even more eagerly to reading his famous novels.

In the embrace of the unknown courage can be found

In my recent readings, I have come across four inspirations that, at first glance, seem unrelated. Yet, in the crucible of my mind, they have lingered and coalesced into a single thought.

Let me start with the four inspirations.

First, from Susan Sontag in her essay Unguided Tour, which explores the discomfort of unfamiliar spaces that are foreign to us. I actually encountered this quote in Christopher Hitchens’ poignant work about the remnants of the British Raj in places like India and Hong Kong:

“That’s why I went. To say goodbye. Whenever I travel, it’s always to say goodbye.” — Susan Sontag.

Second, while reading Robin Sharma’s book The Everyday Hero Manifesto, I came across a discussion on how being faithful to one’s ideals can be a force multiplier. He talks about the joy of following one’s enthusiasm wherever it leads. In this context, he mentions a powerful quote from Anaïs Nin. Though I tried to find the exact source of this quote in Nin’s work, I was unsuccessful, but it remains evocative nonetheless:

“People living deeply have no fear of dying.” — Anaïs Nin.

Third, I discovered a quote about courage from Cormac McCarthy’s All the Pretty Horses on X. Although I haven’t read the book yet, this quote immediately resonated with me, and I made a note of it:

“All courage is a form of constancy. It is always himself that the coward abandons first. After this, all other betrayals come easily.” — Cormac McCarthy.

Finally, I came across the concept of Fernweh during my podcast listening, likely from Dr. Laurie Santos’ The Happiness Lab, though I’m not entirely certain.

Fernweh is defined as a longing for the unfamiliar, the opposite of homesickness—literally, a 'farsickness'. It’s a yearning for travel and getting lost.

I found that these four inspirations share a common thread: the theme of confronting the unknown—whether through travel, mortality, or other experiences—and doing so with courage.

But the deeper meaning, to me, is as follows:

People who often find themselves lost are not losers, as the world might perceive them. They may seem lost in the eyes of others, but they are not cowards who have abandoned themselves; rather, they are looking deeply within. They are likely living deeply and are unafraid of dying. They are seeking something they have not yet found. I will admit that they might be afraid of saying goodbye, which is why they feel a sense of Fernweh, longing to travel and keep the journey going.

Afterall, to live deeply is to embrace the unknown, for in leaving the familiar behind, we can discover our courage.

Diagnosis is strategy

For a strategy to be effective, the process must start with diagnosis. Without a sound diagnosis, strategy becomes nothing more than wild guessing. Yes, strategy involves decision-making—choosing what to retain and what to let go—but these decisions must be grounded in diagnosis. In fact, there's an even simpler truth: diagnosis is strategy.

Asking the question, “What is going on here?” and understanding and clarifying that situation—without making any decisions—is the most crucial part of strategy.

Source: Dave Kellogg @kellblog 's twitter post. More context here on his blog

Both leadership and management are essential for success. Leaders begin by asking and understanding, “What is going on here?” Management, is the art of comprehending the situation and only then making decisions on strategy and tactics.

Reimagining how we 'Learn with Instruction' with AI

In their masterful book, How to Read a Book, authors Mortimer J. Adler and Charles Van Doren observe the difference between two types of learning: learning by instruction and learning by discovery.

They write:

"In the history of education, men have often distinguished between learning by instruction and learning by discovery. Instruction occurs when one person teaches another through speech or writing. We can, however, gain knowledge without being taught. If this were not the case, and every teacher had to be taught what he in turn teaches others, there would be no beginning in the acquisition of knowledge. Hence, there must be discovery—the process of learning something by research, by investigation, or by reflection, without being taught."

- Van Doren, Charles; Mortimer J. Adler. How to Read a Book (p. 12). 

While the act of learning, they clarify, occurs in the mind of the learner in both cases, the process of facilitating that learning is different.

The book was written in 1940, and while many of its concepts remain true to this day, there is one interesting development that I feel puts human evolution at an inflection point.

You may have guessed it—it is AI.

Though there is a chorus of voices proclaiming that AI will completely change the world, I am not a fan of the excessive optimism surrounding it. Neither do I align with the opposing view that AI advancements, such as Generative AI, will bring doom to humanity.

I strongly believe that while humanity may make leaps and bounds in technology, it will ultimately be for the better in the long run—and that the ‘long run’ will truly be long. We often overestimate what can happen in very short time horizons.

However, there is one area that will change dramatically: the process in which human learning occurs due to the advent and growth of AI. This change is tied to the distinction between learning by instruction and learning by discovery.

In 1940, the authors observed a crucial aspect of this difference:

"The reason is that listening is learning from a teacher who is present—a living teacher—while reading is learning from one who is absent. If you ask a living teacher a question, he will probably answer you. If you are puzzled by what he says, you can save yourself the trouble of thinking by asking him what he means. If, however, you ask a book a question, you must answer it yourself. In this respect, a book is like nature or the world. When you question it, it answers you only to the extent that you do the work of thinking and analysis yourself."

- Van Doren, Charles; Mortimer J. Adler. How to Read a Book (p. 14). 

It is this facet of learning that AI is disrupting. Until now, learning by discovery was limited to consuming information with an active mind. Humanity has always sought further learning by instruction to overcome the shortcomings of bookish knowledge. AI is changing this dynamic. Soon, if not already, we will be able to converse with a book or the ideas in a book, seeking clarification and instruction through AI.

Already, using freely available versions of ChatGPT, I am able to have conversations with AI that embody a book or the ideas of an author. With the continued growth of AI, this will become more seamless, allowing different kinds of learning by instruction to occur without the need for a present teacher. This will revolutionize what we understand as the learning process.

Remember, learning still needs to happen in the learner's mind, regardless of whether it is by discovery or instruction. However, I suspect that with AI, the distinction between the two will redefine the role and definition of the instructor.

In some ways, AI seeks to harness the knowledge of books and pull them into the realm of interaction.

50 days of blogging, everyday

In the last 50 days, I have posted a blog post daily. This has been a profound learning experience, as the interconnections of my ideas have come together, allowing me to sustain this daily blog streak. I can see how even a rudimentary application of Sonke Ahrens' "How to Take Smart Notes" Zettelkasten-like system has significantly improved my thinking and writing. It has helped me get past the blank page and find connections between my ideas. Initially skeptical, I now see the value of this approach, even in its simplest form. However, consuming ideas from sources like books, podcasts, conversations, and reflections, and noting them down for review, is crucial. Moving forward, my focus will shift more towards sparking new ideas. While I may not continue the daily blog, I still plan to write as much as possible, as it has become an addictive practice.

As a note-taking aficionado, I use multiple methods to capture and organize my knowledge. Here is a summary of the different types:

To-Do List

I use a systematized to-do list for various recurring tasks:

• Daily Tasks: Activities like doing the daily Wordle, brushing my teeth at night, and taking out the garbage.
• Recurring Appointments: Tasks such as paying bills, calling parents, and calling friends.
• Reminders: For birthdays, anniversaries, and other recurring activities, like backing up my data to the cloud.

I use the free MS To-Do app for this. It is pinned to the top screen of my phone, making it easy to jot down ideas, capture information I hear, and note tasks quickly. I also have a folder for checklists, which helps me stay organized.

Google Keep

Google Keep is my go-to for capturing thoughts, ideas, images, and photos that catch my fancy. When I don’t use MS To-Do for ideas, I turn to Google Keep. It’s like my digital pocket notebook.

I have a separate Google Keep account for journaling and affirmations. When I can't use my iPad Mini for journaling and affirmations, I use Google Keep, typing with my fingers on the virtual keyboard. Instead of mindlessly scrolling, I document my distractions in Google Keep.

OneNote

I use OneNote for:

• Journals: Handwritten entries on my iPad.
• Learning Notes: Documenting book notes, systems, and plans.
• Weekly Plans: Organizing my week.
• Work Profiles: Managing work projects and key details.

Nebo App on iPad Mini

The Nebo app is exclusively for my daily handwritten affirmations. There's something uniquely beneficial about writing things digitally but by hand, making it both useful and accessible.

Obsidian

Obsidian is my "second brain." I am gradually replacing OneNote for all types of learning and note-taking with Obsidian, excluding specific projects. It’s excellent for writing and connecting my thoughts, and I am amazed at how well this system works for me.

Mindomo Mindmaps

Mindomo is my preferred mind-mapping tool, which I use for learning, taking notes, and preparing for interviews. It helps me visualize my ideas and differentiate how I present my learning in interviews and other occasions. It’s superior to word documents or presentations for thinking about the interconnections between ideas.

Paper Pocket Notebooks

I am cultivating a practice of not always being on my phone or screens. Instead, I use pocket notebooks to capture handwritten notes, tasks, and ideas. Eventually all the notes here get transferred to my Obsidian

Work Paper Notebooks

These are dedicated to work-related notes and tasks.

Kindle Highlights

I highlight text in Kindle books and occasionally add notes. For paper books, I prefer taking notes in a separate notebook, as the margins in books are too small for my handwriting.

Where I Publish

• Blog: This blog, Canvas is the destination for all my writing, including daily blogs.
• Instagram: I capture book notes and other content. For the added visual medium and for interactions.
• Twitter/X: I engage in conversations and share retweets/reposts. But I need to explore how I can publish on X for more visibility and traction.

Moving forward, I may not continue the daily blog as I focus on collecting and elevating my ideas, but I still plan to continue writing as much as possible as it is addictive. 

Prophecy tends to be conservative

The problem with prediction is that it is impossible to account for everything and eliminate our biases. Therefore, people who claim to predict the future are often misleading us. Especially because the predictor constantly revises their assumptions based on new evidence. Nassim Taleb articulates this clearly when he says, "we revise our own predictions and intentions unconsciously to match what actually happens. We disguise having been wrong by pretending we were right. This is confirmation bias.”

Another challenge in prediction is how our mind perceives time. Bill Gates famously said, “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” This is very true because, given a sufficiently long time period, second and third-order effects of decisions begin to show up, leading to exponentially different outcomes.

When thinking about the future, our imagination is often limited by the past. We don’t know what is possible, so we tend to extrapolate from the past and present. We cannot imagine without it being absurd and therefore edited out if we haven’t seen or experienced it with any degree of certainty. That’s why science fiction is considered fiction and not probability. Good science fiction imagines new things, but the storytelling is based on something we are all familiar with and can relate to.

Prophecy is always conservative. As Arthur C. Clarke said, "If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.”

However, we can improve our ability to imagine the future. This is where structured methods for thinking about the future, such as scenario planning, come into play. Scenario planning is an excellent practice that helps us push our boundaries beyond our comfort zone and imagine new and alternative futures. Building on Taleb’s wisdom that events are not predictable, but the consequences of actions are more predictable, scenario planning is not about predicting the future but about imagining different alternatives and preparing for them.

As a side note and thought experiment, imagine the magical world of Harry Potter without the prophecy or divination component. Would there be more harmony because Tom Riddle (Voldemort) would not have sought to eliminate Harry in the first place? Boring, I know, from a story perspective, but overall better outcomes in the short and long term!

 

Simplicity is harder than complexity

Le Taureau, is a series of lithographs by Pablo Picasso

Taking complex subjects and simplifying them into abstract forms is a major aspect of Picasso’s art. This concept is a skill. People who are successful in life have this in common: they are able to break down the complexity and simplify things for themselves and for others. Simplicity is harder than complexity. We often think it’s the other way around.

“I have made this longer than usual because I have not had time to make it shorter.” – Blaise Pascal

Brand purpose is broken

Should brands have a purpose? The answer is yes. Brands are important assets in the modern world, and they should aim to do good. But where it gets tricky is whether they should actively market this purpose. I am not so sure.

When did brands have to become religions? Are brand managers ethic philosophers, and are the users of a brand a congregation?

A simpler way to think about this could be: founders have purpose; brands need to stick to positioning. Purpose is not a differentiating factor. The way it is being talked about, purpose is seen as a higher order, lofty ideal of social good, which means that all brands will tend to address the same gamut of issues plaguing society. While there are enough issues plaguing society, for brand purpose to matter, there will have to be a prioritization of which issue to tackle, starting from the top down – the most difficult problem first. These days, the consensus seems to be sustainability and inequality, and various flavors of these two. When we see it this way, it is not a good idea for many brands to be tackling the same few issues. Remember, brands are vehicles of differentiation. Purpose marketing is reducing that difference and leading us towards commoditization. It's not surprising that we see so many purpose-driven campaigns that all look the same.

Purpose is at best one aspect of positioning, not equal to or above it. It is something that gives a brand momentum. Really successful brands are nothing more than brands that have a sense of momentum and stay ahead of trends. Not all brands need to be challenger brands.

A better way to think about purpose as a facet of positioning is to consider meeting a consumer need. Take sustainability as an example. Consumers are frustrated by their inability to affect issues like sustainability individually. Therefore, at scale, brands can offer consumers a way to feel more capable of contributing to the sustainability cause. This articulation makes sense as it offers a clear role for brand purpose, which is rooted in an actual job to be done for consumers—a genuine tension, not just a stated concern over the environment used for marketing.

Get brand purpose in its right place within brand strategy. Don’t elevate it above strategy.

TOFU mentality - Take Ownership and Follow Up

In both work and life, achieving your goals requires taking ownership. Of your life and of your circumstances. Blame and victimhood offer no value; instead, we must rise above them, take ownership, and actively work toward what we want. However, taking ownership alone is not enough.

The second part of the TOFU mentality—following up—is equally crucial. We must follow up with ourselves and others to make progress on our agenda. As a professional I often see employees and managers, taking responsibility but succumbing to "superhero syndrome." They try to handle everything by themselves in the false hope that they can do it all. They don’t work collaboratively or seek help. This undermines the ownership they take, because these behaviours limits what they can achieve.  This is lack of ‘follow up’ - both with themselves and with others.

Those who persistently take ownership and follow up, with courage, kindness and consistency, are the ones who rise above and become true leaders. 

Motivation checklist to overcome work anxiety

If you are anxious at work, overthinking, and unable to make a decision, here are some ideas to help you get over the nervousness, focus, and move forward:

1. Start: Take one small step on anything, even if it is not critical.
2. Don’t expect conditions to be perfect: Start before you are ready.
3. Remember, work usually gets done: It's very unlikely that you will be cross-examined right now. Just start and then try to delegate.
4. Nobody is thinking about you: In fact, everyone is thinking about themselves.
5. Stop building “if-then” scenarios in your mind: Don’t make maneuvers or think about doing them. Take action. If you must build 'if-then' scenarios, write them out. When you see them, you'll realize how absurd they are.
6. Remind yourself that you can handle it: When fear takes over, reassure yourself that you can handle it. You don’t need to know how; just be confident that you will manage.
7. Think long-term about consequences: If you know what action to take but are worried about the consequences, consider the long-term perspective. Soon, this issue will no longer matter.
8. Cultivate luck and take risks: Take that risk. What's the worst that can happen?

In summary, get out of your mind and start taking action.

Increase the opportunities you have to succeed

Success is not a trick. It is a technique. It’s a technique because success comes from following a system that predisposes one to take actions set up to help them succeed. Instead of asking how one can succeed, one should be putting effort into learning what increases energy and focus. When deployed systematically, this will increase the exposure to opportunities for success.

Philosophy of the future

"Fiction that is fast becoming real is philosophy.” – Yuval Noah Harari

Yuval mentions (something like) this during his conversation on the Tim Ferriss podcast when discussing the power of words. I cannot seem to find the exact quote in the transcript. They discussed how some books, like Brave New World by Aldous Huxley or The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, are more philosophy cleverly disguised as science fiction. The same can be said of shows like Black Mirror, which uniquely holds up a mirror to society today by visualising an imaginary world, which is fast becoming reality, but feels just a bit shocking today.

Scenario planning in the domain of futures thinking aims to achieve a similar effect. By systematically observing the present and past, and making calculated imaginations of the future, futures thinking allows individuals, organizations, and societies to prepare for different alternatives and take action to steer toward a preferred future. 

This kind of fiction is, therefore, a philosophy of the future.

Inspiration to live an unrushed life

Follow your compass, not your clock

- Andrea Jung

Incentives in life are biased to the fast and the agile. It is a FALSE incentive. It might be good in the short term and in some seasons one does need to prioritize speed. But in the long term and for things that really matter in life, an unrushed approach is the true incentive and is in fact a luxury. The best things in life take their sweet time. 

Rethinking the need for heroes

In German playwright Bertolt Brecht’s classic play Life of Galileo, Andrea, a former pupil of Galileo, visits him after he recants his seminal findings under pressure from the Catholic Church. Galileo gives Andrea his notebooks, asking him to spread the knowledge they contain. Andrea celebrates this, saying, “Unhappy is the land that breeds no hero.” 

Galileo corrects him: “Unhappy is the land that needs a hero.”

This concept pushes us to think outside the mainstream. People with a victim mindset are often looking for a hero to save the day and an anti-hero to blame. A better approach is to question why we need heroes, persecutors, or hapless victims in the first place. Instead, we should have the courage to be regular adults dealing with issues in a mature way.

The Drama Triangle is a concept where people engage in certain kinds of drama in their interpersonal interactions. These dramas are typically negative behaviors that do not lead to positive outcomes. The drama perpetuates negativity and does not lead to resolution.

In Victim mode, one feels victimized and unable to enjoy life or effectively deal with life's issues. Victims seek out persecutors or rescuers.

In Rescuer mode, one constantly looks to rescue someone, which is an easy escape from focusing on their own problems. It is avoidance disguised as concern for the victim, keeping the victim dependent on the rescuer and vice versa.

In Persecutor mode, one is blaming, controlling, or angry. Instead of being assertive, the drama forces the person to be aggressive.

The need for heroes is a siren call for engaging in drama. Whenever we see a situation where there is an acknowledged need for heroes to save the day, it is a clear indication of underlying problems that need to be addressed directly. In relationships and organizations, this dynamic suggests a lack of healthy, collaborative problem-solving and an over-reliance on individuals to resolve systemic issues. 

It is also linked to the superhero syndrome, the expectation that one can do everything by themselves without relying on others. This goes against eons of human development, which is based on communal and collaborative living.

Functional value of emotions

We all need to understand the functional value of our emotions. Emotions provide useful information; they are the body and mind jointly telling our consciousness how they perceive certain stimuli and contexts.

People's understanding of emotions and how to manage them has evolved over time, particularly in the modern world. Today, many have learned to underplay their emotions. We tend to feel annoyed instead of angry. We might settle for being mildly amused instead of truly inspired. We often smile at a joke we find funny rather than laughing out loud, to avoid seeming rowdy. We downplay our shock at poor behavior by simply writing it off as mildly surprising. These behaviors stem from social constructs, expectations, and upbringing.

It's important to have a healthy understanding and relationship with our emotions. Underplaying them can lead to repression, which is harmful to both body and mind. Conversely, those who cannot control their reactions to emotions are also at a disadvantage, often finding themselves in a victim mindset.

Anger is an important emotion when you want something to change. I have heard of an interesting cure for writer's block: identify and start writing about what makes you angry, and it will no longer be a blocker. Similarly, surprise can open our minds to new possibilities and break us out of our routines, helping to meet our stimulation needs. Experiencing rejection and despondency builds resilience. Disgust helps protect us from harmful substances and behaviors. Failing to express and feel these emotions, and being politically correct in a ‘cancel culture’ environment, can make us bitter, easily offended, and ultimately fragile.

Sadness arises when we cannot change something that has happened in the past; anger is present; fear pertains to future possibilities and the potential for things to go wrong. Understanding the roles of these emotions and recognizing when we feel them is useful.

The beauty of emotions is that they can be experienced in the past, present, and future. Joy can come from recalling a fond memory, being fully alive and focused in the present moment, or anticipating and imagining a preferred future.

Parable about working in silos vs. collaboration

There is a rock blocking a road.

One person comes up to it, sees it, and goes around it. Another person arrives, notices the rock, puts a post-it note on it saying "there is a rock blocking the road," and then takes the path around the rock. A third person comes, shouts back, "Hey, there is a rock on the road, be careful," and also goes around it.

All these actions demonstrate siloed thinking. Each person takes their own way, and even though they think about helping others, they do not address the root cause of the problem.

Then, a fourth person arrives. He stops and starts working on moving the rock out of the way. Others join him, and together they eventually move the rock off the road. After removing the obstacle, they all proceed on the cleared path. This is an example of collaboration.

Questions to consider:

• What if the goal was to reach the destination as quickly as possible? What roles should people take in this scenario?
• If all these individuals were on one team, is it acceptable for different team members to take different approaches to explore various outcomes?
• How do skill sets and abilities factor into this scenario?
• Finally, what can organizations do to clarify which approach they want their teams to take and in what situations?

Art serves as a valuable metaphor for life when applied wisely

 

Epic Poem of Malaya, 1955, Chua Mia Tee

"The painter assumes the role of scriptwriter, director, and actor to freely shape the subject's image." — Chua Mia Tee

During a visit to the Singapore National Gallery, I came across the work of Chua Mia Tee, a renowned Singaporean painter. In a video montage there, he discusses the differences between painting and photography. He explains that photography captures the scene as it is, whereas painting emphasizes themes chosen by the artist, making it selective in nature. Not all elements present in a scene necessarily appear in the painting. In fact, a good painting often includes special elements to elevate the scene and tell a story.

This process of emphasis distinguishes painting from photography. However, I believe that even in photography, the selection of the scene and what to include in the frame involves a form of emphasis, similar to painting. Ultimately, both are art forms, and art serves as a valuable metaphor for life when applied wisely.

In life, we can choose when to be a photographer, staying true to the scene, and when to be a painter, highlighting the positive elements we want to emphasize. A good life involves doing both.

Insecurity is worse than incompetence

Employee engagement is challenging. However, it doesn't have to be. Various organizational issues lead to low employee engagement. One particular symptom indicates that things are seriously off track and that significant problems lie ahead for the company. I call this symptom 'insecurity stifles initiative.'

Before I elaborate, let me clarify something. As companies grow and reach mid-size, certain typical symptoms emerge: additional layers of management hierarchy, different teams and silos, misaligned objectives between teams, different subcultures, transformation programs, bureaucracy, politics, financial problems, short-termism, and many more. These are common in most organizations of a certain scale and are not deeply rooted problems. There are tried and tested ways to address these issues, and a whole industry of consulting is built around dealing with them.

However, when 'insecurity stifles initiative' appears, it's a clear signal that some parts of the organization, or the whole organization, are circling the drain. What do I mean by this? In any organization with a certain threshold of staff, there is usually a bell curve distribution of people's attitudes. You will have a few highly motivated, high-agency people, and a few apathetic and disruptive individuals. Any properly functioning organization slowly and humanely weeds out the disruptive individuals and reorients the apathetic to situations where they can be engaged again. The problem lies with the majority who are neither apathetic nor highly motivated.

In an organization where 'insecurity stifles initiative,' it becomes increasingly evident that both the majority and the high-agency people are dissatisfied. For the majority, the culture does nothing to encourage initiative. So, people are doing their work, maybe grumbling about it, and are not very productive. For the highly motivated few, the culture actively blocks or creates hurdles for them, despite their predisposition to take initiative.

I have observed that the culture of 'insecurity stifles initiative' is not specific to any one part of an organization or any one level; it is generic and not localized, making it even harder to observe and recognize, let alone tackle. Everyone from the CEO down to the analyst can exhibit the symptoms of this culture.

There are some telltale signs that this kind of culture is taking hold or is already present:

1. Selective groups share information, excluding some levels not because it makes sense, but because those excluding them feel the need to protect themselves and their power.
2. The information held close is usually not on the critical path for the business but is what the select groups deem important to protect their power.
3. Ideas receive feedback and suggestions that may add 5% improvements but will take almost double the effort to achieve, killing the motivation of those doing it.
4. Measurement for measurement’s sake is the norm.
5. There are many channels for providing upward feedback, and it is encouraged in corporate communications, but there are never enough intimate forums for it to be provided easily.

Examples of this behavior include:

1. Leaders visiting a market from across the globe on pricey travel budgets but not making an effort to meet teams to bond and inspire, only meeting specific business objectives. This is usually justified by cost efficiencies, but what is hidden is the insecurity of not being able to connect as a leader.
2. Leaders always fixing problems and not painting a picture of possibilities in informal ways. Everything is formal. Efficiency is prioritized over efficacy.

The key summary of all this emerging from an 'insecurity stifles initiative' culture is that employees don't know where they are heading in the organization, leading to negative outcomes.

Because this issue is generalized and can be present anywhere in the organization, the change must come from deep within a silo, with a cohort of cohesive and happy team members and a leader who rises above the milieu of insecurity. This is often uncharted waters, and not many mainstream frameworks or advice work. Each leader needs to find their own ways and create a tribe around them. And it is possible, but rare.

BOOK NOTE - The Bear - Andrew Krivak

 

Ever so often, I come across a book that I am unable to put down. I purchased The Bear by Andrew Krivak on a Saturday morning after reading a recommendation and finished it by Monday evening. All 220 pages. You could say I devoured it.

Krivak is an American author of some repute, having won several prestigious awards. He has written only four books, but all have been critically successful. I suspect he will become one of those standout American literary authors who may not attract a large audience but will find critical acclaim. His work is part novel, part philosophy, offering unique observations about the human condition. Note: there is another Andrew Krivak who comes up in Google searches. This other Krivak was recently acquitted after being incarcerated for 24 years. He was proven innocent of crimes he was wrongly convicted for. They are not the same person.

The Bear is a unique piece of work. It is set in a post-apocalyptic world where the last of humanity consists of a father and his young daughter. They live in the wilderness, surviving through the ‘fruits’ of nature and the wisdom passed down to them. The father and daughter are survivors, making a successful but hard living because they have no other option. Their existence is rather melancholy as it is just them, their conversations, and their thoughts. Eventually, when the father passes on, the girl, still in her early teens, must learn how to survive the wilderness and the harsh seasons. She does so with the help of a pantheon of animals, including the titular bear, a panther, and an eagle.

Two interesting observations about the human condition emerge from this story. One, no matter how much we progress technologically as a society, every child must learn about the external and internal environments completely afresh. Therefore, the second point is that the more teachers, that are good in helping us navigate our learning in life, the better.

A must-read

BOOK NOTE - How to fail at almost everything and still win big - Scott Adams

I have admired Scott Adams’s Dilbert comic strip for a long time. While the drawings are simple, the humor is punchy and, as an office worker, it connects with me immediately. In 2019, I came across Scott’s conversation with Tim Ferriss on his podcast, and I really enjoyed Scott’s clarity of thought and his message about how to be successful. I particularly connected with the idea of using affirmations to condition your mind for success. Since then, I have followed Scott’s work and his conversations with others.

Scott's book is a field manual for people who want systems for success. Written not in any one narrow domain (e.g., success as a cartoonist), it is a great primer for succeeding in life. It provides systems and ideas that can be adapted to various contexts. It aligns well with and reinforces my beliefs and learning about ways to succeed in life.

Here are some key messages:

1. Choose systems instead of goals, as systems help create the infrastructure for success.
2. Ensure you are maximizing energy; it's more important than time management. Match your mental state with the activity.
3. Be open to failure. Accept rejection and learn from it.
4. When you learn from failure, you gain knowledge that gives you an advantage.
5. Generous people take care of their needs first, so they can give to others.
6. The best systems are simple. Simplify your life.
7. Imagination is the interface to your attitude. Pessimism is a failure of imagination.
8. Don’t just be optimistic; be super optimistic—what do you have to lose?
9. Choose things that you can practice easily to get better.
10. Happiness is being able to control your schedule.

I have used affirmations in my life, and they work. They put you in a positive state of mind, which makes all the difference.

Timeless over the trending

“Focus on what is timeless, not just on what is trending.”

This is good advice. The modern world often caters to our need for stimulation, making us addicted to constant input and creating an insatiable desire for more. As a society, it will be challenging to step back from this. Change must begin with motivated and determined individuals who take a step back and form communities around these values. I foresee this becoming a significant counter-culture movement that is sustainable. But I suspect it will never be mainstream. The mainstream is lost to the allure of modernity.

Knowledge comes from paying attention

Knowledge is available everywhere. It seems to be free, but it is not. To gain knowledge, you have to pay attention.

We often hear the statement that we are what we pay attention to, and it is true. One gains knowledge when they pay attention and are able to focus on a task without distractions. Ironically, in today's data-abundant world, we are actually attention poor. We are increasingly distracted, don’t pay attention, and are more likely to consume things mindlessly.

To break this cycle and gain knowledge, we have to slow down, pay attention, and focus. If we take the time to nurture our attention and notice the details, we will cultivate delight.

The state of our attention is the state of our lives.

Prioritize leisure and being bored

Amos Tversky once said, "We waste years by not being able to waste hours." 

The constant drive to be productive is a modern malaise. We should take breaks and wander. 

I once chose to read the poem "Leisure" by W. H. Davies in a team meeting at the office. There is a line in the poem that always makes me stop and ponder whenever I come across it or am reminded of it:

"What is this life if, full of care,

We have no time to stand and stare?"

A lot of the modern problems of stress, overwhelm, and anxiety arise because we do not dedicate time to simply wasting it. 

We have become hooked on this unnatural treadmill, always running around trying to be productive. If only we took some time aside to be bored, we would be more productive. 

Next time you feel frantic and overwhelmed, remember that "You are never overworked when you are well rested."

Protect high agency and enthusiasm; even at the cost of incremental improvements

When someone has an idea that is 80% good and has 100% motivation, it is better to let them proceed with it. A leader might be in a position to offer suggestions to improve it by 5%, but depending on the circumstances and the individual's personality, that incremental advice might reduce their motivation to 50%. This is not a great outcome for the leader. It is important to choose battles wisely.

Often, trying to improve something at an early stage can make it too complex and hinder its progress. A greater skill than technical prowess for a leader is knowing when an idea or project is good enough and needs execution experience before making it incrementally better. Gall's Law states that something complex emerges from simple behaviors, so knowing when to intervene is crucial.

When someone is motivated and has agency, they are more likely to deliver results. Protecting that agency and sustaining their motivation is key.

This applies to personal activities as well. As James Clear says, if someone is trying to build a new habit, it should be standardized in their routine before optimizing it. Progress before perfection is the mantra. That is why open goals have a better chance of succeeding than very specific and restrictive goals.

"I have just found a way that does not work. How lucky am I!"

Everyone is figuring it out as they go along, even those you think are in positions of power or are experts in their field. So don’t give yourself a hard time if you feel like you don’t know things. What’s more important is your attitude. Are you willing to make an effort irrespective of the outcome? Then you are already ahead of most who don’t make an attempt because they feel they don’t know how to do things.

If you have agency and are willing to take just two steps beyond your doubt, you will find the next piece of the puzzle. If not, you will learn something about what has not worked, and that is very valuable.

Reframe your attitude about failure. Welcome it. Open yourself up to it. To do this, use this easy mental trick: when things don’t go as expected, instead of saying to yourself, “I have failed,” try saying,

“I have just found a way that does not work. How lucky am I!”

This way, it’s another thing you have learned. You can take corrective action.

Then take it to the next level and say to yourself,

“I have just found a way that does not work. How lucky am I! If I ask for help, collaborate, or try another action, I might find the solution.”

This little reframe will help you become an active learner.

Desensitization to dopamine is leading to 'Dopamitis'

NOTE: This is not medical advice. I am not a doctor. This is just me observing patterns.

Type 2 diabetes is a condition where the body has become insulin resistant. Insulin’s function is to help manage blood glucose levels. In a person with Type 2 diabetes, where the body is desensitized to insulin, more of it is needed for the body to function properly. Various factors like genetics, lifestyle, and eating habits can contribute to insulin resistance, affecting many people with this serious illness. For a person with Type 2 diabetes, consuming sugary foods is problematic because, without additional insulin to manage the increased blood sugar, the insulin desensitization can lead to the negative effects of excess blood sugar.

One way to treat this condition is to use treatments that help the body regain its insulin sensitivity.

A similar pattern can be observed with another of the body’s hormones, but in a different context.

When the brain becomes desensitized to dopamine (the pleasure hormone), it needs more stimulus than normally required to perform its natural functions of emotional regulation, focus, and experiencing pleasure and happiness. A person whose brain has become desensitized to dopamine needs additional stimuli for the dopamine to work, leading to an addictive cycle. Individuals in this condition need more and more of the stimulus to experience the same degree of pleasure or focus. This can lead to addiction to social media, drugs, stimulants, sex, and pornography. Initially, a small amount of these activities is enough to trigger feelings of happiness and pleasure. However, with continued use, the mind becomes desensitized, and soon, more and more of it is needed for the same high. This creates a negative downward spiral leading to the depression and anxiety crisis.

This condition can be called dopamine addiction, or if you will indulge me, ‘Dopamitis.’

Similar to the treatment of Type 2 diabetes where the body’s insulin sensitivity is improved, one way to address ‘Dopamitis’ is to help the brain regain its sensitivity to dopamine.

Diabetes is considered a major lifestyle illness around the world today. If society continues its addiction to dopamine, primarily due to its addiction to smartphones, 'Dopamitis' might become as significant a lifestyle ailment like diabetes, affecting our society.