Prophecy tends to be conservative

The problem with prediction is that it is impossible to account for everything and eliminate our biases. Therefore, people who claim to predict the future are often misleading us. Especially because the predictor constantly revises their assumptions based on new evidence. Nassim Taleb articulates this clearly when he says, "we revise our own predictions and intentions unconsciously to match what actually happens. We disguise having been wrong by pretending we were right. This is confirmation bias.”

Another challenge in prediction is how our mind perceives time. Bill Gates famously said, “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.” This is very true because, given a sufficiently long time period, second and third-order effects of decisions begin to show up, leading to exponentially different outcomes.

When thinking about the future, our imagination is often limited by the past. We don’t know what is possible, so we tend to extrapolate from the past and present. We cannot imagine without it being absurd and therefore edited out if we haven’t seen or experienced it with any degree of certainty. That’s why science fiction is considered fiction and not probability. Good science fiction imagines new things, but the storytelling is based on something we are all familiar with and can relate to.

Prophecy is always conservative. As Arthur C. Clarke said, "If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.”

However, we can improve our ability to imagine the future. This is where structured methods for thinking about the future, such as scenario planning, come into play. Scenario planning is an excellent practice that helps us push our boundaries beyond our comfort zone and imagine new and alternative futures. Building on Taleb’s wisdom that events are not predictable, but the consequences of actions are more predictable, scenario planning is not about predicting the future but about imagining different alternatives and preparing for them.

As a side note and thought experiment, imagine the magical world of Harry Potter without the prophecy or divination component. Would there be more harmony because Tom Riddle (Voldemort) would not have sought to eliminate Harry in the first place? Boring, I know, from a story perspective, but overall better outcomes in the short and long term!